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\centerline{\bf STANFORD UNIVERSITY}
\centerline{\bf DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS}
\centerline{\big BERKELEY-STANFORD SYMPOSIUM}
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\centerline{4:15 p.m., Tuesday, November 13, 2001}
\centerline{Applied Physics, Rm 200}
\centerline{(Cookies at 3:45 p.m., 1st Floor Lounge, Sequoia Hall, Room 200}
\centerline{ -- and reception after the talk in the 1st Floor Lounge of Sequoia Hall)}

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\centerline{\sl John Rice}
\centerline{\sl Department of Statistics}
\centerline{\sl University of California, Berkeley}
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\centerline{\bf A Simple Model for a Complex System:  Predicting Travel Times on 
Freeways}

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A group of researchers from the Departments of EECS, Statistics, and
the Institute for Transportation Research at UC Berkeley has been
collecting and studying data on traffic flow on freeways in
California.  I will describe the sources of data and give an overview
of the problems being addressed. Finally, I will go into some detail on
a particular problem -- forecasting travel times over a network of
freeways.  Although the underlying system is very complex and tempting
to model, a simple model is surprisingly effective at forecasting.

Some of the work the group is doing appears on these websites:

      http://www.dailynews.com/news/articles/0201/20/new01.asp
      http://oz.berkeley.edu/~fspe/
      http://http.cs.berkeley.edu/~zephyr/freeway/
      http://www.its.berkeley.edu/projects/freewaydata/
      http://www.path.berkeley.edu/
      http://http.cs.berkeley.edu/~pm/RoadWatch/index.html
      http://www.path.berkeley.edu/~pettyk/research.html

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